Training Leadership Summit Keynote

I had the pleasure of addressing the Training Leadership Summit conference this morning.

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This is a group of senior leaders from Learning and Development that comes together each year to discuss and shape the direction of the industry.

Today the message was clear. Web 2.0 and 3Di are disruptive technologies to the profession and the do-nothing alternative is not in play.

Here are my charts from the session:

Lets get on with committing to the obvious!

Enterprise Virtual Worlds Get REAL (Really ; )

vwtlc

It is very rare to get in on the ground-floor of an emerging industry. It is also somewhat frustrating to be in the thick of it for a few years writhing with impatience for the market to or the technology catch up. The dance between market and technology readiness stair steps its way through predictable peaks of inflated expectations and troughs of disillusionment on one side and eras of ferment followed by dominant design on the other.

My intuition tells me that 2009 is the year that the planets align for Virtual World Enterprise applications to head up the proverbial hockey stick. For years now I have been hearing Virtual World vendors complain that they do not have a legitimate home. At the Serious Games conferences they are marginalized my the more jazzy games. At Training Conferences they are pushed out of the limelight by Instructional Design Approaches and LMS vendors, and, until NOW, at the Virtual Worlds conferences it felt like Entertainment and Media was sucking up the bulk the oxygen. NOT ANYMORE ; )

On the client side (people who are hungry to implement Virtual World Technologies within their enterprises) I have heard an ongoing plea for TANGIBLE EXAMPLES of how Virtual World solutions have solved REAL Business Problems and delivered REAL Business Results.

ANNOUNCING THE FIRST DEDICATED ENTERPRISE VIRTUAL WORLD SHOW
Today I am pleased to announce that Chris Sherman has asked me to develop the program and MC the first Virtual World show dedicated specifically to the Enterprise.

I am incredibly excited about the opportunity we have here. I am hoping, like the inaugural VW show in NY, that this will be THE event that creates a critical mass of innovation and collaboration that finally catalyzes the widespread adoption of Virtual World technologies within the enterprise.

FROM EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL TO EXAMPLES OF THE PRACTICAL
Chris, Tonda and I have had a number of conversations about the positioning and tone of this show. At this conference, we are clearly seeking to move beyond discussing the potential of Virtual Worlds for the Enterprise and instead to be focused on sharing PRACTICAL EXAMPLES from early adopters in industry that have already applied Virtual Worlds successfully.

Gibson’s (or is it Brand’s) old saw that “The Future is Already Here, It is Just not Evenly Distributed” is quite appropriate. My goal over the next six weeks is to search high and low and in an out (it is 3D after all) for the most compelling examples of Enterprise Virtual World applications that will help build an evidence base to substantiate our hypotheses that Virtual Worlds will reshape industry and value chains in ways at least as profound as its one-dimensional cousin. We want to even out the distribution by bringing the best examples of virtual world enterprise applications so we can accelerate the path to the future.

Some Acid Test Questions for Vetting these Exemplary Stories Are:

    What was the business issue or opportunity you were faced with?
    What was your virtual world solution and how did it address that problem?
    Why was this virtual world solution chosen over other options? What differentiated it?
    How did you get sponsorship and funding to implement this virtual world solution?
    What virtual world platform did you choose to implement your solution?
    What were the key attributes of that platform that led to its selection?
    What were your biggest barriers to implementing the solution?
    How did you evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the solution?
    What results have you been able to demonstrate to date to legitimate the investment in the Virtual World Solution?
    What advice would you have for others considering implementing a virtual world solution within the enterprise?

A LITTLE TLC
In many ways the pattern of diffusion of 3Di has followed a similar path to Web 1.0. In the early days of the browser there was a lot of emphasis on B2C, then over time, and the collapse of irrational exhuberance of the dot.com era, companies retrenched and started leveraging browser technologies behind the firewall. Sound familiar?

Right now, after speaking with a number of folks close to the industry the wisdom of the crowd says that Virtual World technologies are most likely to be applied within the enterprise for Training, Learning and Collaboration. Consequently, our primary focus will be on these big three for the April show.

HELP
The success of this show hinges upon how compelling a case we can make that the time for Virtual Worlds TLC application for the enterprise is NOW via the power of example. So if you know of a wonderful TLC enterprise application, please submit to the call, or contact me directly.

Lets all work together to make this show the best it possibly can be.

Uber Mashup Update: Thanks Chuck Hamilton

Chuck Hamilton (aka Longg Weeks in SL) and I go a long way back. I have always enjoyed his keen insights and easygoing nature. He was kind enough to send me a very thoughtful reply to my plea for help.

Here is what he said:
To create the Uber Web 2.0/Web 3D we need to sort out all these collaboration tools and processes into some sort of participation era filter ― a blended matrix of options that we can use to weed out the tired pieces and expand the use of more evolved pieces.

Below is a sort of filter I have in mind.

2x2-chuck

This is a sort of old and new ideas/models across a time and space axis. If we started to fill this matrix out with all available options, we would see that we can not only narrow the field, but also understand what the blend of activities and approaches will be most applicable.

I feel that there will always be a blend ― a mix that makes sense in the context of our life/work/play balance. When we are collaborating and working there is always a time/space context to consider and there are different approaches that work best in each case. Certainly the spaces are converging, but we are a long way from the sort of ‘one size suits all sort of Uber landscape’ you are hoping for. Let’s embrace mixed media and just position it properly and see if that starts us down the right path.

Right on Chuck! Funnily enough a number of us at Fuqua started building this very matrix as a foundation to allow us to understand how and when to integrate/build bridges across the time/space continuum (Watch out Einstein).

Also, another fellow IBMer, and “tribe” leader for Eightbar, Ian Hughes recently pointed us to the video showing ST integration with Forterra. You can see it here:

Right around 1:37 in this demo there is a jump from 2D (Sametime Conversation) to 3D a Room in Forterra. What I am trying to figure out right now is HOW that Interface looks. Is is simply a “Go 3D” button within the Sametime Client and there is a standard issue Room on the Other End? At timestamp 3:36 one of the engineers asks the others to hold on while he brings up a chart. Again, what I am looking for is the interface that makes it intuitive do do this.

Most of what I am seeing out there, including my own initial forays into this space, it appears are all about what things look like once you get into the 3D space. At Fuqua we are coming at this from a more nuanced (I hope) perspective. 3D is but one modality and even when that modality might be optimal, there will be ACCESS issues the do not allow certain participants to “GO 3D.”

The trick here, we believe, is to create an interface that marries 2D and 3D interface taking into account the most important and value added Time/Space connections to afford more immersive and engaging collaboration. If ANYONE has seen such an interface….please do let me know.

My students in Management of Innovation and Technology this semester were tasked with evaluating the disruptive potential of 3Di for a given set of industries. The team focused on Education highlited WiloStar3D . While focused on collaborative home schooling I found this diagram useful in emphasizing all that must go on in terms of Content, Contacts and Connections (thanks to Lisa Bobbitt from Cisco for those 3C’s) around the 3D world.
wilostar

Additionally, at around 1:02 timestamp, the video below starts to get into the notion of 2D meets 3D with Calendaring, Assignments etc in the 2D space…but, IMHO, we need to be a lot crisper on how this works and leverage the power of contextualizers to take maximal advantage of the small real estate we have to make things intuitively obvious and immediately actionable.

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If anyone has seen examples of flat 2D interfaces that integrate the formal learning context (Courses, Content, Deliverables) with Informal learning (Communities, Context, Conversations) while optimizing the multiple time/space technological affordances in a thoughtful way, please let me know ; )

What is the Uber Web 2.0/3Di Mash Up for the Eduprise?

Every spare moment this week has been devoted to investigating this question.

I come to this question having spent much time in the world of Electronic Performance Support (EPSS) and Workflow Learning and my perspective is informed by traditional Human Performance Technology (HPT) theory.

I can’t move on from that reference without sadly recognizing the passing of Geary Rummler. He truly was a giant in the field and his works were very influential on my own perspective and practice. RIP Geary.

OK, Investigating this question takes the tension of topic/content/formal versus task/context/informal we’ve been wrestling with for some time in learning/KM to the next level. It forces us to examine how Web 2.0 impacts the enterprise of the future as we migrate from database centric stocks of tagged explicit knowledge to social computing enabled flows of digitally enabled people with ability to find each other to innovate and problem solve in real time. In short, I am in a hurry to figure out the Enterprise (or Eduprise in my context) 2.0 IT infrastructure looks like…because we need to BUILD IT here at Fuqua by August of next year ; )

Mc Kinsey’s “Building the Web 2.0 Enterprise” Global Survey Results found that companies are using Web 2.0 technologies more frequently for INTERNAL purposes. Similar to its Web 1.0 cousin, it looks like the B2C period of inflated expectations has passed and we are moving to focus on pragmatic, internal applications with a focus on efficiency. Within the internal use category, the top six enterprise application areas were:

    Managing Knowledge

    Fostering Collaboration across the Community

    Enhancing Company Culture

    Training

    Developing Products or Services

    Internal Recruiting

Interestingly, as I look at analyst reports on the trends and lists of internal application areas where virtual worlds will have impact, the list is strikingly similar to those outlined above for Web 2.0.

Steve Prentice of Gartner has long maintained that the Business to Consumer Marketing focus of Virtual Worlds will retreat to the Enterprise and seek safe haven from the treacherous waters of an increasingly unpredictable market in the safe harbor of productivity focused internal applications of Collaboration and Learning.

Thinkbalm’s Erica and Sam Driver in their recent Immersive Internet report break enterprise applications into 8 High Impact use cases. They further hypothesize that these 8 use cases will array across three phases moving from Cost Savings, through Harnessing Unexpected Business Value, ultimately leading to Business Transformation.

Their time chart for how these enterprise applications array across the phases and time is shown below:

thinkbalm1

So what gives? If BOTH Web 2.0 and the Immersive Internet/3Di forecasts promise to have enterprise application in the areas of collaboration and learning, it seems to me that these emerging applications can only be a thoughtful and nuanced Mash Up of both. The trick here is figuring out what mix of what technologies for what outcomes.

Justin Bovington and his team at Rivers Run Red appear to have spotted this early. Here is a nice video that explains their Immersive Workspaces 2.0 offering developed with the Lindens:

From this overview, it is clear that much thought must go into the orchestration and coordination of digitally mediated presence, connection, conversation, sharing, presentation, co-creation, discovery etc…in order to enable a seamless 2D/3Di experience that allows people to work at a distance with mind-numbing ease.

Here at Fuqua we are right in the thick of prototyping/iterating/co-creating the Uber 2.0 Eduprise Mashup. We not only need to integrate Web 2.0 and 3Di but we also need to plug it into (or more appropriately position on top of) our existing technological infrastructure that enables the orchestration of World Class MBA programs at a distance (i.e. our LMS and LCMS).

In guiding our Itervation (Iterative Innovation that is), there are a few sources that provide direction:

FIRST is the Seven Sensibilities of Virtual worlds mentioned earlier in this blog. Our guiding premise here is to only leverage 3D where it makes a strategic and significant difference. No good doing 3D just for its own sake, much better to apply where it makes a marked and memorable impact on the end-to-end educational experience for our stakeholders.

SECOND, Erica Driver’s work at Forrester in defining the Seven Tenents of the Information Workplace have been very helpful. Here is our slightly modified version:

    Context: Today users have to make conscious decisions about when to use which tool to collaborate with others on a document or deliverable. To overcome this issue we need to clearly define what “contextualizes” and what is “contextualized.” Profile/Role, task and Connection Mechanisms will contextualize content and connections in real time around the endeavor at hand. This will lead to a more intuitive and usable immersive workspace that allows users to more rapidly get to the “Doing” rather than dealing with the overhead of planning, co-ordinating and connecting before getting to the “Doing”

    Individualized: The user (Prospect, Student, Staff, Faculty, Alum) must be at the center of the design of our next generation learning Collaboration and Learning Intuitive Learning Environment (CLIVE). The technology must adapt to the individual, not the other way around. CLIVE must have both a social/personal and personalized programmatic component. Leveraging our understanding of the Contextualizers (i.e. WHO the user is, HOW they are connected to the environment, WHERE they are in the workspace, and WHAT they are trying to do) allows CLIVE to tune the interface to the individual context and shift the burden of orchestration and coordination of resources required to accomplish a given task from the individual to the environment itself.

    Seamless: CLIVE must seamlessly integrate new Web 2.0/3Di service apps with our existing LMS/LCMS infrastructure. It must mask the complexity of back end applications and interfaces with elegant and intuitive simplicity on the front end. People must be able to invoke and act upon the information, contacts and tools they need with minimal effort. We should not burden the cognitive load of users in preparing to do work. Rather, we should provide a “draggy, droppy, clicky” environment that allows them to get on with the REAL work of collaborative co-creation.

    A consistent look and feel must be maintained across the various components assembled in the environment even when multiple back end systems are being leveraged. To the user, it should NEVER feel like they are switching back and forth between applications or telescoping up and down within a rigid navigation system to marshal resources to accomplish a task. CLIVE orients the world of content, contacts and connectivity around the user and shrinks the world to surface relevant resources to solve the task at hand.

    CLIVE must also accommodate the seamless movement back and forth between structured formal learning and unstructured collaborative peer learning in a way that both approaches are honored and activated where they are most appropriate and where the whole learning experience yields moments of synthesis for the participants that are greater than the sum of the pedagogical/technological parts. CLIVE must continuously strike the balance between structure and serendipity in the service of enriching the learning experience.

    Visual: Our mash-up should resonate visually and allow people to quickly grok content and intuit context (i.e. Tags and Social Network Representations in 2D space and avatar interactions with each other and data/models in 3D space). Traditional Web-Based navigation schemes are information-centric and thus challenged in their ability to keep pace with a user’s need to quicky scan, interpret, and act on contextually relevant information. Clearly there is an opportunity to leverage visualizations of meta-data via tag-clouds and social connectedness via Social Networking technologies have relevance here as does the opportunity to leverage the third dimension (avec ou sans avatar) to improve the “grokability” of the environment.

    Multimodal: Our system must recognize that, as Kevin Kelly so ably suggests, there is only One Machine and the Web is its OS. We need to strive to be able to accommodate all the devices that connect to the one machine in a seamless way (can we please hurry up with visualization and the cloud?) – Timestamp 3:15 to get to demo.

    Quick: Does this need explanation? Wiki is a Hawaiian word for Fast! CLIVE needs to work. CLIVE needs to work without a manual. CLIVE needs to ignite talent opportunity and passion around ideas and endeavors at an an accelerated pace, and CLIVE needs to activate the growing and incredibly talented network that is Fuqua (over 14K strong today) to address the pressing issues of our times. What am I missing, oh yes…..CLIVE needs to work YESTERDAY (OK, not yesterday, but late March at the latest).

The THIRD source of guidance for itervating CLIVE comes from Gartner’s analysis of the Business Impact of Social Computing on Higher Education. In this report, Harris and Lowendahl suggest that, “the incorporation of social software features and integration capabilities with institutional applications will become necessary to accommodate the higher education user expectations, while closing the gap between personal and institutional structures.” They go on to say, “If positioned strategically, social computing can fill a gap between the inflexible structures in place in most higher-education organizations and the chaotic personal structures that have spread across the desktops of both student and faculty.”

So CLIVE must bridge the gap between the existing enterprise infrastructure and the personal chaotic structure that has emerged to compensate for the ridgidiy and inflexibility of that enterprise infrastructure. CLIVE needs to provide an adaptive structure that allows users to CREATE, ORGANIZE, FIND AND INTERACT more intuitively. To do so CLIVE must:

    Provide Persistent Presence to allow ongoing openess for participation

    Render Content, Contacts and Connectivity that is contextualized to user role/workflow

    Organize Content, Contacts and Connectivity to reflect users current use and needs

    Encourage natural and serendipitous group formation based on location, activities and interests

    Leverage links, tags, ratings and usage to determine relevance, importance and quality

    Find content through people links and vise versa

    Dynamically update profiles based on content/tags created, involvement in interactions and aggregation of user-generated commentary,co-creation, content, filtering and organization.

The FOURTH area of inspiration for itervating on CLIVE comes from Anderew McAfee’s work on Enterprise 2.0 that I discussed in an earlier post here. Contextualizing his SLATES components to CLIVE comes out something like this:

    Search and Serendipitous Discovery trump Interface Navigation/Hierarchy. In fact, just as Thomas Friedman suggest that the world is FLAT. A core design point for our CLIVE is that the interface itself must be FLAT and that the content, contacts and connectivity elements are surfaced within that FLAT interface based on the contextual factors at play.

    Links, Tags and Extensions and Signals are the domain of User Generated Commentary, Content, Filtering, Organizing and Distribution that CLIVE must provide. The trick here is that it must work across all the underlying apps that the FLAT interface masks. How do we take all the richness of web-serviced applications, mash them up with existing enterprise platforms and allow the informal serendipity of fortuitous interaction to prevail in a system that is optimized to create a flow state for formal and informal learning and inquiry that rivals that of World of Warcraft?

    The very interesting thing about the participatory web approach is that it not only helps others find explicit knowledge but it also exposes the patterns and processes in knowledge work that others use. As McAfee says, these participatory systems make an episode of knowledge work more widely and permanently visible.

This is going to be a fun ride….anyone with any experience, advice, wisdom, counsel, please bring it on. This is new territory to be sure and none of us is as smart as all of us. Ideas and insights PLEASE.

Masie Keynote Video: My 23 minutes of Fame

Elliott Masie was kind enough to invite me to do a keynote interview with him at his Learning 2008 conference. Here is the video his team posted a few days ago.

It was a blast doing this. Elliott and I truly riffed…as you will see when he stops me and asks me to repeat something he thought was insightful and I reply that I have already forgot and we will have to check it out on the tape ; )

Here is our 23 minute jam on Technology Adoption and Hype:

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You can see other great keynote interviews with the likes of Kevin Kelly, Steven M.R. Covey, Amy Sutherland and Wayne Hodgins just to name a few, by clicking here.

Thanks to Elliott for taking a chance on me and to all of the Learning 2008 attendees who were kind enough to attend my session. BTW if you want a complete set of charts from my session they are available via Slideshare by clicking below.

Keynote at Masie Conference

This morning I had the pleasure of doing a keynote session with Elliott Masie. True to form we agreed to just riff…and that we did.. I think it went quite well and I had a lot of folks come up after the session to say they got something out of it.

Elliott is pulling out all the stops this year. There is an ARG (Alternate Reality Game) that David Metcalf and his crew are running called Dream Corp. Also, Ann DeMarle’s students at Champlain college are building a game in real time during the conference to deal with the issues of teleworking.

Finally, being the king of last minute, I just signed into the social networking site that the Masie folks have provided and found it to be very user friendly. Here is a screenshot of the social network view. I am the blue dot closest to the middle:

I am very much looking forward to soaking it all in and leaving with more questions than I came…that way I know I have learned something ; )

Over and out for now from Orlando.

V-Business Expo Day 1

Currently in Forterra’s Olive Platform listening to Steve Prentice speak on virtual worlds. Here is the agenda. I will be keynoting this event tomorrow and talking about the 3Di web singularity.

Here is my real-time capture of Steve’s insights:

Virtual worlds are all about people not technology. Function is as an environment for people to interact. Basic premise underpinning is presence in concurrent space. If it is about interaction, is Myspace or Facebook a virtual world in its own right even without Vivaty. Are MMORPGs virtual worlds? Presence based interaction would say yes even though they are more deterministic than virtual worlds.

The real truth on the future of virtual worlds is very hard to predict. But his famous 80% quote was to wake up CIOs to the reality. 300M registered users in virtual worlds according to KZero.

Huge gulf between registrants is huge. So counting registrations is easy but not accurate. On average ratio is 12:1 in terms of registrants to users. For instance, Habbo is 90M registrants to 9M active users for instance. So a good rule of thumb to use. Some indications suggest for younger demographics have higher ratios.

But HOW MANY users don’t matter. More important to know WHO the users are. VWs are dominated by kind and tweens from a population perspective. However, adult residents of VWs are passionate about environments. Research shows that it is the older users (30+) that are most dedicated even though they are a smaller population. Lots of plugs for KZero’s anaysis. Encourages us all to take a look at the most recent analysis.

Virtual worlds are all about people, but this industry is being driven by engineers so the predictable pattern of functionality explosion and interface confusion. Technologists see things as physical problems when VWs are really about people. Therein lies a disconnect. User interfaces are a HUGE issue. Keep it simple. If you notice the interface it is already getting in the way.

Community and Socialization needs to come before creation. People like talking to people they have things in common. Community built around Love, Belonging and Self Esteem (Maslow). Contrasts going to Barbie Venue versus SecondLife. Secret of vibrant active virtual world community is about community not creativity, people not physics.

SecondLife saw huge growth early on. It is not a failure, but not as successful as some that focus on people. Carefully targeted or linked to toys. Look at IMVU, Habbo, closing in on 100M downloads. They relentlessly deliver against the needs of their segment. SL tries to target everybody…but everybody is not a segment.

We need to provide ability to personalize and customize. But just like you go to IKEA to buy your furniture instead of building yourself, this should happen in VWs. Societal pressure conspire adults to do things required to do rather than having fun. Kids are easier to target. Kids/tween worlds have strong aspects of gaming and social/reputational capital. Habbo is 2.5D but gets 10M unique users. High end features are not essential to success. Virtual worlds are about people and interactions.

How about Virtual Worlds in the Enterprise. Increasingly he talks about intersection of Technology, Business and Society. Notion of Co-Evolution. Business and Societal landscape. Ref to 1962 Arthur C. Clarke’s laws. Democratization of IT challenging the very fabric of how enterprise IT works. Users are increasingly changing the rules for Enterprise IT leaders. Rise of global communities that have broken free from the constraints of geography.

Why did initial enterprise foray into virtual worlds fail? Not understanding demographics and not understanding community. Enterprises got caught up in hype. End result was as predictable as it was disappointing. Few successes were focused on internal deployment rather than customer oriented. Educational Sector, virtual worlds have progressed quite well. Lot of universities are engaging with students around virtual environments. Broadcast media has also had some success.

Opportunity to engage with audience and control brand experience is attractive. Know your segment and build affordances around the community they want. Add the immersion of Virtual worlds and you have a place where people feel they belong. VWs are 21st century equivalent of Fanzines. TV program will become the trailer/advertisement for the Virtual World community build around it.

Training is the one place where promise has been met but it does leverage creative component. Virtual reality as tool for simulation and scenarios is a historical artifact here. Can do deterministic (simulations) and non-deterministic (social interaction) scenarios. Vastpark, Wonderland etc allow the technically savvy to create a controlled and customized environment. We are also seeing RRR and Sheep getting into this work. Scenario based role playing is a key area where Virtual Worlds have significant advantage. Training is always the first application he recommends. Role based scenario is key. ESA says 70% of major employers leverage games/virtual worlds for learning and half are role based.

Gaming is huge…average age is in late 20s. Most business audiences have serious WOW players. Maybe time for them to come out of the closet. If you are a good trader on EVE online you are probably a pretty good trader in the real world too. If you are a Guild Leader you could be a world class project manager. Maybe all the long hours at MMORPG keyboard can help you in your career.
Steve referenced our IBM GIO on online gaming research, he says…”Read it, digest it and leave it out for your boss to see.”

Beyond training there are also Meetings, Bloody Meetings. We can effectively use VWs for this. But we need to be careful. Sometimes Webex and Webcam is all you need. Sometimes you need Telepresence, but VWs fit into the face to face sense of belonging required for meetings. Immersive Work Space from Rivers Run Red. Wonderland may be strong in the enterprise next year. We will see more of the collaborative benefits of Virtual Worlds due to fuel prices. So first focus on TRAINING, then INTERNAL COLLABORATION. But beware on collaboration, do not get too carried away. Remember to keep it simple. They are but one tool.

Next stage for organizations will be about resolving social elements of work as we are no longer physically co-located. Virtual worlds are good for cementing and strengthening the social fabric and the culture of the organization. These trivial conversations are important. Virtual worlds can play an important role as a virtual water cooler. But ROI is hard.

What about external deployment. It will take a while. 18 Months or Two Years. Interfaces will have improved and user bases will have become clearer. Some good examples. Retail Shareholder example from a Steel Organization. Chambers from Cisco also hosted a meeting in SL. Opportunity to promote organization directly at the grass roots. Microsoft has made product announcements in SL at 30% of cost. Direct comms and brand building in public virtual worlds will pick up, but it will be a while. Controlled limited deployments with specific audiences and community/collaboration agendas.

Average dwell times in virtual worlds is about 15 minutes. This is very attractive for marketeers. Here is where Lively comes in. Maintain and build a community around a brand is going to be a key play. RRR and others are seeing this.

What about the future. Technology is advancing. Visual fidelity and gestural computing are on the way. Combine with multitouch and broad adoption of accelerometer. Much more intuitive control interface. Forget the mouse, forget the interface. These things will trickle out. If we don’t VWs will be abandoned by the mainstream. MOBILE will be huge. 3B of them as opposed to 1B interfaces. VWs need to build on the Mobile Platform. Not full functionality, but do need to maintain DIGITAL SOCIAL GROOVING. More valuable will be SEAMLESS CONNECTIVITY BETWEEN platforms rather than visual fidelity within 3D platforms. Huge explosion in Mirror Worlds using geospatial data. Virtual Travel before real Travel.

Big challenge is USER INTERFACES, THICK CLIENTS. Browser based interfaces need a middle ground. Interoperability is a key. He does not believe in the overarching Metaverse. People are getting used to maintaining separate digital personai.

Are we nearly there yet? No but people before physics, community before creativity and enterprise focusing internally on employee education and collaboration will be key. Today’s virtual worlds have interfaces that people do not have patience to learn. People don’t want technology they want magic. In the words of Jean Luc Picard…JUST MAKE IT SO.

The 3Di-Web Singularity is Near

Kurzweil fans will recognize the blatent lift from his most recent book. But as far as I am concerned stealing is the ultimate form of flattery, especially in a Web 2.0 world where “TEACHING” and “CHEATING” are anagrams…..More on that in another post.

Since I was asked to talk on this subject this Thursday at the e-Learning Guild Online Forums, I had to give this some attention this past week. Here is my latest back-of-napkin-turned-into-PPT thinking on the 3i-web singularity. If you like what you read here, you may want to consider signing up here for the Forum on Thursday.

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In “The Singularity is Near” Kurzweil posits that due to the law of accelerating returns, technology is progressing towards a singularity where a machine/technology mashup extends beyond the capability of human beings.

Victor Vinge originally coined the “singularity’ term observing that just as our model of physics breaks down when it tries to model the singularity at the center of a black hole, our model of the world breaks down when it tries to model a future that contains entities smarter than human.

My attempt here is to take some of Kurzweil and Vinge’s thoughts and mash them up with some more pragmatic guidance from Analysts such as Steve Prentice at Gartner who suggests that

“By the end of 2011, 80 percent of active internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will have a “second life,” but not neccessarily in Second Life.”

Anyhow the story towards the i-web singularity goes something like this:

SYNCHRONOUS LEARNING GOES BECOMES IMMERSIVE:
The integration between traditional synchronous learning systems such as WebEX, Centra, Adobe Connect, Citrix and 3D Avatar-Mediated platforms is not far away. Karl Kapp and I have written a whole paper on this topic that is available through the e-learning guild site.

CORPORATE SOCIAL NETWORKING GOES INTERACTIVE
I continue to marvel at the speed of the 3D space. My hypothesis is that this speed is driven by the Web 2.0 network that is built around it. Mark Wallace or other notables in Virtual World news post something as soon as they hear it on the grapvine. It is the ultimate in radical transparency and it is this transparency that propels the industry forward informed by the wisdom of the crowd that is both producting and consuming insights on where it is going. For instance, at Virtual Worlds II Ruben Steiger, in his morning keynote, posits that there will be a mash up between Facebook/Myspace and 3D worlds. That AFTERNOON I am at the Active Worlds table where I see an Facebook/Active Worlds mash up. Later I ready that Korea’s Cy World is going to go 3D. If this is where things are going in Consumer land, enterprise can’t be far behind. In fact, it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that some lower end integration of Webex and Telepresence could be a new Killer App for Cisco, while IBM has already announced plans to integrate 3D with Lotus Connections.

IMMEDIATE DYNAMIC KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY
This is the point at which Knowledge MANAGEMENT gets left in the dust. We stop focusing on trying to create “STOCKS” of extracted knowledge from experts, but instead we focus on enabling “FLOWS” of interactions via Blogs, Wikis, Social Tagging and Networking to increase the number of knowledge accidents within the firm. Also, we forego corporate competency modeling in favor of real-time, ongoing tag clouds attributed to both PEOPLE and DOCUMENTS. Blog squads go seek out the truth about an issue or opportunity, Wikis capture the wisdom of crowds around a given topic or task, dynamic social networking enables real-time capability discovery and takes advantage of an affordance long leveraged within MMORPGs and the list goes on.

INTUITIVE NETWORKED VIRTUAL SPACES
Finally the integration of SLSs such as Live Meeting and Repository/Work Spaces such as SharePoint just plain makes sense. Marrying interactive work activity with the explicit knowledge required to engage in virtual work is an inevitability. If people like MS or Google get this right (given that Ozzie is now with MS, the chances of the former are good), then we will FINALLY have an intuitive NewWORKed environment where work just plain gets done.

THE 3Di Web SINGULARITY
Masup the Mashups and you end up with a totally new platform upon which people work, learn and play. A 3D environment that affords information age work like nothing we have seen before. One that is immersive, interactive, immediate and intuitive. One that unleashes the human capital inside the firm more effortlessly than ever before and one that attracts people to it because it is a space that allows them to uncover endeavors around which they have both the capability and the passion to engage. With something as powerful as this less than 4 years away (and I predict sooner), lets hope that those Human Capital Management folks are paying attention.

3Di Vendor Analysis by NCSU MBA Student Team

This semester I ran an independent study with five students from my Consulting and Management of Technology courses. Their challenge was to investigate the potential of 3Di technologies for a Fortune 10 organization.

The output they created for this organization was thoughtful and thorough. One of the greatest rewards of being a professor is seeing the classroom content you are trying to convey being applied in new and meaningful ways by incredibly bright and enthusiastic students. I can honestly say that this particular independent study was one of those truly blissful moments in my teaching career. I am incredibly proud of what these NCSU MBA’s produced.

The other cool thing is that they crated useful assets that can help us all know more about how to move the enterprise 3Di agenda forward.

Here for example, is their analysis of 3Di Vendors. As fast as technology moves, I am sure that there are red dots on this table that will need to be updated almost immediately, but it is a great start.

Thanks to Grant, Omead, Sara, Larissa and Lavanya for all the hard work!

Go Wolfpack: Wada Changes Careers ; )

OK, I know…it has been a few months I but I’m BAAAAACCCCCCKKKKK!

Where were you? you ask…well in the past few months, I have made a big career leap and moved back into academia at North Carolina State University’s (that’s the Wolfpack) College of Management

Upon hearing the news, an IBM colleague of mine sent me this picture which I think is quite apropos. Although I will always be a Hokie at heart I am definitely a Wolfpacker when it comes to the rest of the ACC…go PACK (Unless you are playing the Hokies ; )

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So far I am really enjoying working with the students. I am teaching Strategy and Management of Technology and I am an Executive Advisor in our Technology, Entrepreneurship and Commercialization program.

Also, I have a few colleagues at the university who share my passion for the potential of 3Di and learning. In fact we made the front page of the College of Management site last week.

You can read the whole story here.

Tomorrow I will be covering Karl Kapp’s new book as part of his blog book tour.

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